Update: Q3 2015 has just been added. View the latest trends in our interactive housing index infographic.
With the housing market constantly fluctuating, it’s difficult to keep track of — let alone predict — how the market will look in the future. Nationwide’s new quarterly Health of Housing Markets Report (HoHM) changes that.
While other housing surveys and indices focus solely on past trends, the HoHM Report concentrates on the near-term outlook for housing. The data in the report provides a perspective on the health of housing markets today, as well as a glimpse of what homeowners and prospective homebuyers can expect. And the future looks bright – according to the HoHM report, the U.S. housing market is at its healthiest level since 2001.
“Unlike most other housing indices or surveys, the report provides a look into the future instead of the rearview mirror,” says David Berson, Nationwide’s chief economist and senior vice president. “It should serve as a resource to gauge how healthy housing markets are today but, perhaps more importantly, what to expect in the future and why.”
The in-depth report covers employment, mortgage market, home price, and demographic data at the national level to gauge the health of the U.S. housing market, as well as for 373 metropolitan statistical areas (MSA) to shed light on local conditions. The quarterly HoHM publication provides a national leading indicator score and regional rankings including a list of the top 40 MSAs rankings by size.
Specifically, the inaugural HoHM Report finds that the current national leading indicator score is 109.8, a modest increase from the 108.7 score for the fourth quarter of 2014 and the highest level since 2001 (earliest date for which data is available). An index value over 100 suggests the national housing market is healthy, with lower chances of a housing downturn over the next year as the index moves increasingly above the 100 breakeven value.
National Leading Indicator
More information about the HoHM Report, including the methodology used, can be found at blog.nationwide.com/housing/. The HoHM Report will be released on a quarterly basis online and in print.
This material is provided by Nationwide Economics and is general in nature. It is not intended as investment or economic advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or adopt any investment strategy. Additionally, it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, tax and financial condition or particular needs of any specific person. We encourage you to seek the advice of an investment professional who can tailor a financial plan to meet your specific needs. The economic and market forecasts in this report reflect our opinion as of the date of this presentation/review and are subject to change without notice. These forecasts show a broad range of possible outcomes. Because they are subject to high levels of uncertainty, they may not reflect actual performance. Case studies and examples are for illustrative purposes only. We obtained certain information from sources deemed reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy, completeness or fairness.