Nationwide’s Health of Housing Markets Report
Select a quarter and then press “Play” to initiate the interactive map. To get the performance ranking for a specific MSA, zoom in or scroll over the map or click on the numerical ranking legend for wider comparisons.
Next Release: December 9, 2019
2019Q3 HoHM Report: Probably past the peak, but the fundamentals are still positive for housing activity
- The national LIHHM* continues to suggest a sustainable housing market. Improved household growth, solid job gains, and low delinquency rates are the major drivers of the positive outlook for housing activity over the next year.
- Slower house price gains and falling mortgage rates have significantly improved housing affordability while income growth has accelerated — putting a home purchase within reach for more homebuyers. Lack of supply remains a constraint, however, and is likely to limit a further expansion of home sales.
- More MSAs dropped to a neutral rating this quarter, indicating that housing activity may have peaked, but not suggesting a downturn for housing. This includes more than half of the 40 largest metro areas in the country.
- The peak for the housing market for this cycle probably occurred in 2017. Moreover, this peak was much lower than during previous expansions, due in large part to the historically low inventory of homes on the market and more restrictive mortgage lending.
Housing outlook remains upbeat in response to strong demand drivers
The national LIHHM edged a tad lower to a positive reading of 106.9 this quarter. Drivers of homebuyer demand, including job/income gains and household formations, remain positive and are expected to keep the near term outlook for housing positive. National house price growth has slowed further and is near the long-term trend, a positive for sustainability. Lower mortgage rates should boost sales activity and may lead to faster price gains ahead, although the tight supply of homes on the market will likely limit the sales upside.
Regionally, half of the LIHHM performance rankings are positive and indicate a healthy outlook for housing in those local markets. Demand factors at a regional level are generally supportive with low unemployment rates and faster household formations. Moreover, housing affordability is improving in many areas as income gains have accelerated while mortgage rates have declined.
This material is provided by Nationwide Economics and is general in nature. It is not intended as investment or economic advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or adopt any investment strategy. Additionally, it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, tax and financial condition or particular needs of any specific person. We encourage you to seek the advice of an investment professional who can tailor a financial plan to meet your specific needs. The economic and market forecasts in this report reflect our opinion as of the date of this presentation/review and are subject to change without notice. These forecasts show a broad range of possible outcomes. Because they are subject to high levels of uncertainty, they may not reflect actual performance. Case studies and examples are for illustrative purposes only. We obtained certain information from sources deemed reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy, completeness or fairness.