Nationwide’s Health of Housing Markets Report


Select a quarter and then press “Play” to initiate the interactive map. To get the performance ranking for a specific MSA, zoom in or scroll over the map or click on the numerical ranking legend for wider comparisons.

Next Release: September 17, 2019

2019Q2 HoHM Report: Housing market looking more sustainable

  • While home sales data have been a bit slower so far in 2019, the national LIHHM* sees positive, more sustainable trends from the housing sector. With the highest reading in three years, the index points to healthy housing activity over the next year or so.
  • Slower house price gains are improving housing sector sustainability, while reduced mortgage rates, solid job gains, and rising wages should lift homebuyer demand this year. Although supply constraints remain, these fundamentals are positive for housing demand
  • More than half of the country’s 400 MSAs have a positive rating as house price gains in many areas have decelerated over the past year. The slowdown is more pronounced in larger cities, especially along the Pacific Coast where price appreciation is now below average.
  • Existing home sales dropped during 2018 as rising mortgage rates squeezed potential homebuyers. Data show that the declines were sharper in states with the highest median sales prices. The outlook for the remainder of 2019 has improved with lower mortgage rates

Download HOHM Report

* Leading Index of Healthy Housing Markets (LIHHM): A data-driven view of the near-term performance of housing markets based upon current health indicators for the national housing market and 400 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) and divisions across the country.

Housing outlook continues to brighten with the LIHHM in positive territory

The national LIHHM rose to a positive reading of 106.3 this quarter, the highest reading in three years. Demand metrics (led by solid job growth and strong household formations) remain highly positive and are indicative of near term health for the housing market. National house price growth continues to decelerate and is near the long-term trend, a positive for sector sustainability. Homebuyer demand should respond positively to lower mortgage rates and faster income growth, although continued supply constraints are likely to cap any sales gains.
 
Regionally, more than half of the LIHHM performance rankings are positive and indicate a healthy outlook for housing in those local markets. Demand factors at a regional level are generally supportive with low unemployment rates and faster household formations. Moreover, housing affordability is improving in many local areas as income growth outpaces house price gains while mortgage financing costs have declined
 
National LIHHM

Authored by Nationwide Economics

DAVID BERSON, PhD

Senior Vice President, Chief Economist

David holds a doctorate in Economics and a master’s degree in Public Policy from the University of Michigan. Prior to Nationwide, David served as Chief Economist, Strategist and Head of Risk Analytics for The PMI Group, Inc., and Vice President and Chief Economist for Fannie Mae. David has also served as Chief Financial Economist at Wharton Econometrics and visiting scholar at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. His government experience has included roles with the President’s Council of Economic Advisors, U.S. Treasury Department and the Office of Special Trade Representative. He is a past President of the National Association for Business Economics.

BRYAN JORDAN, CFA

Deputy Chief Economist

Bryan is a frequent author and knowledgeable source on economic topics, and has been featured in The Wall Street Journal and New York Times. Bryan holds degrees in Economics and Political Science from Miami University and has earned the Chartered Financial Analyst designation. He currently serves as Chairman of the Ohio Council on Economic Education and is a member of the Ohio Governor’s Council of Economic Advisors, the National Association for Business Economics, and the Bloomberg monthly economic forecasting panel.

BEN AYERS, MS

Senior Economist

Ben authors periodic economic analyses from the Nationwide Economics team, as well as commentary on key economic topics. Ben is also responsible for understanding and analyzing the enterprise business drivers to assist the strategic planning process. He holds a Master of Science in Economics from the Ohio State University, specializing in applied economic analysis, and a BSBA from the Fisher College of Business at the Ohio State University, with a focus on economics and international business.

Additional contributors: Ankit Gupta, CFA and Brian Kirk

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This material is provided by Nationwide Economics and is general in nature. It is not intended as investment or economic advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or adopt any investment strategy. Additionally, it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, tax and financial condition or particular needs of any specific person. We encourage you to seek the advice of an investment professional who can tailor a financial plan to meet your specific needs. The economic and market forecasts in this report reflect our opinion as of the date of this presentation/review and are subject to change without notice. These forecasts show a broad range of possible outcomes. Because they are subject to high levels of uncertainty, they may not reflect actual performance. Case studies and examples are for illustrative purposes only. We obtained certain information from sources deemed reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy, completeness or fairness.