Nationwide’s Health of Housing Markets Report


Select a quarter and then press “Play” to initiate the interactive map. To get the performance ranking for a specific MSA, zoom in or scroll over the map or click on the numerical ranking legend for wider comparisons.

Next Release: Scheduled for Tuesday, March 21, 2017.

2016Q4 HoHM Report Executive Summary

  • The national LIHHM* suggests that the overall U.S. housing market continues to be healthy with a positive outlook over the next year, as solid job growth and a pick-up in household formations mostly offset rising home prices and interest rates.
  • Regionally, the LIHHM rankings show positive housing trends in the majority of metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). This suggests that most local housing markets should see sustainable expansion over the next year.
  • Energy sector slowdowns continue to depress the housing outlooks in several MSAs in energy-intensive areas, especially in North Dakota, Wyoming, Texas, and Louisiana. Stabilizing oil prices and employment readings, however, should soon improve the housing metrics in these regions.
  • More than a quarter of MSAs are rated as healthy and most sustainable — indicating a positive outlook for 2017 and a very small likelihood of a downturn in housing activity.

* Leading Index of Healthy Housing Markets (LIHHM): A data-driven view of the near-term performance of housing markets based upon current health indicators for the national housing market and 400 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) and divisions across the country.

The national LIHHM continues to reflect a sustainable U.S. housing market

The current value for the national LIHHM is 107.4, little changed from the second quarter and slightly lower than the reading from a year ago. Improved growth in household formations and continued declines in serious delinquencies are boosting the LIHHM score, while solid job growth also remains supportive of housing demand. On the downside, home price appreciation continues to run above the long-term average, although still-low (albeit rising) mortgage rates are helping to keep housing affordable.

Regionally, the LIHHM performance rankings indicate that the vast majority of metro areas across the country are healthy, suggesting that few regional housing markets are vulnerable to a housing downturn in the near term. The energy sector continues to depress scores for a few local markets, but with oil prices and energy sector employment stabilizing, the outlook should improve in coming quarters.

National LIHHM

Authored by Nationwide Economics

DAVID BERSON, PhD

Senior Vice President, Chief Economist

David holds a doctorate in Economics and a master’s degree in Public Policy from the University of Michigan. Prior to Nationwide, David served as Chief Economist, Strategist and Head of Risk Analytics for The PMI Group, Inc., and Vice President and Chief Economist for Fannie Mae. David has also served as Chief Financial Economist at Wharton Econometrics and visiting scholar at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. His government experience has included roles with the President’s Council of Economic Advisors, U.S. Treasury Department and the Office of Special Trade Representative. He is a past President of the National Association for Business Economics.

BRYAN JORDAN, CFA

Deputy Chief Economist

Bryan is a frequent author and knowledgeable source on economic topics, and has been featured in The Wall Street Journal and New York Times. Bryan holds degrees in Economics and Political Science from Miami University and has earned the Chartered Financial Analyst designation. He currently serves as Chairman of the Ohio Council on Economic Education and is a member of the Ohio Governor’s Council of Economic Advisors, the National Association for Business Economics, and the Bloomberg monthly economic forecasting panel.

BEN AYERS, MS

Senior Economist

Ben authors periodic economic analyses from the Nationwide Economics team, as well as commentary on key economic topics. Ben is also responsible for understanding and analyzing the enterprise business drivers to assist the strategic planning process. He holds a Master of Science in Economics from the Ohio State University, specializing in applied economic analysis, and a BSBA from the Fisher College of Business at the Ohio State University, with a focus on economics and international business.

Additional contributors: Ankit Gupta, Steve Hall, Aaron Reincheld, and Emily Watson

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This material is provided by Nationwide Economics and is general in nature. It is not intended as investment or economic advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or adopt any investment strategy. Additionally, it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, tax and financial condition or particular needs of any specific person. We encourage you to seek the advice of an investment professional who can tailor a financial plan to meet your specific needs. The economic and market forecasts in this report reflect our opinion as of the date of this presentation/review and are subject to change without notice. These forecasts show a broad range of possible outcomes. Because they are subject to high levels of uncertainty, they may not reflect actual performance. Case studies and examples are for illustrative purposes only. We obtained certain information from sources deemed reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy, completeness or fairness.