Nationwide’s Health of Housing Markets Report
Select a quarter and then press “Play” to initiate the interactive map. To get the performance ranking for a specific MSA, zoom in or scroll over the map or click on the numerical ranking legend for wider comparisons.
Next Release: March 10, 2020
2019Q4 HoHM Report: Expanding housing market to drive further gains in home construction
- The national LIHHM* retained a positive rating this quarter, suggesting that the odds of a downturn in the housing market over the next year are relatively low. Demand for housing remains strong in response to above-trend household growth, solid job gains, and low mortgage rates — factors that drive a positive outlook for housing for 2020.
- The low supply of existing homes for sale remains a constraint on sales growth and has shifted more homebuyer demand to new homes. Housing starts, while trending higher, are also below the demographic trend — implying further gains in coming years for the construction of both single-family and multifamily units.
- Regionally, about half of metro areas maintained a positive ranking this quarter — indicative of generally supportive conditions for housing growth over the next year or so. Moreover, the rankings for most MSAs were unchanged versus a year ago as demand factors and mortgage market conditions have remained stable and sustainable.
Housing outlook remains positive, aided by demand factors
The national LIHHM edged lower for a second consecutive quarter to 106.2, but remains up solidly from a year ago. Demand factors continue to drive the positive outlook led by low mortgage rates (more than 100 basis points below year-earlier levels), above-trend household formations, nearly the lowest unemployment rate in 50 years, and rising incomes. The national serious delinquency rate has declined over the past four quarters, contributing to the positive readings within the LIHHM. House price growth (although accelerating a bit recently) remained near the long-term average, promoting a generally sustainable price environment for homebuyers.
Regionally, half of the LIHHM performance rankings are positive and indicate of a healthy outlook for housing in those local markets. Household formations have increased regionally and unemployment rates remain low, supporting housing demand in most metro areas across the country. Additionally, personal income shifted higher in response to tight labor markets while house price growth has been steady, helping to keep homes relatively affordable in many areas.
This material is provided by Nationwide Economics and is general in nature. It is not intended as investment or economic advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or adopt any investment strategy. Additionally, it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, tax and financial condition or particular needs of any specific person. We encourage you to seek the advice of an investment professional who can tailor a financial plan to meet your specific needs. The economic and market forecasts in this report reflect our opinion as of the date of this presentation/review and are subject to change without notice. These forecasts show a broad range of possible outcomes. Because they are subject to high levels of uncertainty, they may not reflect actual performance. Case studies and examples are for illustrative purposes only. We obtained certain information from sources deemed reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy, completeness or fairness.